Preheat the oven to 350 degrees F. Lightly coat the top and inside cups of a 12-cup muffin pan with nonstick cooking spray.
Put 1/4 cup almonds in the bowl of a food processor. Process until very fine and the nuts are the texture of cornmeal. Add the cake mix, yogurt, eggs, oil, 1/4 cup water and the remaining 3/4 cup whole almonds. Pulse until no bits of dry cake mix remain and the nuts are coarsely chopped Add 1/4 teaspoon of zest and the orange juice to the batter with the cranberries. Pulse two or three times to just combine the fruit.
Divide the batter between muffin cups and bake until the tops are lightly browned and spring back to the touch, 18 to 20 minutes.
Cool 10 minutes in the pan then transfer to a cooling rack to cool completely. In a small bowl whisk the powdered sugar, hot water and remaining 1/2 teaspoon zest until glossy and smooth. Adjust the consistency of the glaze with the remaining water, a few drops at a time until just loose enough to drizzle. Spoon over the cooled muffins. Let stand a few minutes for the glaze to harden.
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